Winning big, losing big, on similar trade.
It's commonly said but now I also feel that the market is a war between bears and bulls and my (and every trader to be successful) target is to be with the stronger one at the moment to get some profit and exit. It's so best to follow the trend and avoid catching tops and bottoms.
I do mistakes frequently though, and one such mistake, when I tried catching the top, was when Delta variant started creating troubles in Europe recently as I was having the "intuition" based on medical knowledge as what it can do in the community at the national level and hence the economy. Sadly the trade was a failure initially and the market kept rising but after 2 days of big drawdown and losses in premium cost but finally, the market reversed and went down giving great profits. Similarly, when again I tried to catch the top but not with great logic, I failed badly.
Learning point I want to emphasize here is its good to follow the trend, as good to continue the treatment that is helping, but sometimes logic may suggest a different idea or what logical may not seem to be helping in short term (minutes/hours/days depending on timeframe) but great in long term, and balancing the care plan by good decision making there is an art. A good simple example is TB medication where in short term the ADRs create bigger troubles but in long term view, sticking to it while minimising ADR where possible may be the best thing, similarly weaning of a ventilated patient though uncomfortable in short term but great in long term, and in a complex scenario where lots of unknowns and huge uncertainty efforts on analysing the case data by taking more/better/detailed history, available knowledge base etc. May be better than focusing on batteries of tests. It doesn't mean tests are not important, but it means patient centred research, analysis and maybe also N of 1 trials are more important to be utilized.
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