Thursday 30 December 2021

Data analysis to find simple investing strategy

Data analysis to find a simple investing strategy for decent returns by testing how well the stock market follows the Pareto principle.


Data source - (Dec - 30 - 2021)  5-year return on equity (ROE) data exported from the paid version of tickertape.in for the companies listed in Nifty 500. 


Histogram for visualization showing number of companies vs percentage return.

Mean14.6%
Median14.88%
Standard Deviation12.88%

Above 28.9%377.4%
Below 5%7815.6%
between 5% - 28.9%38677%
ConclusionPareto Principle can be followed. 20% losers, and 80% winners in the portfolio can give an average 15% annual return in long term investing. 


Optimization can be done based on various factors but that may not be necessarily useful. 

For a hypothetical case of having the highest return possible on a portfolio of 15 stocks containing only top performers is 53% but surely finding such multi-baggers may be very difficult and even on making a dedicated effort on analysis only 1-2 such may be found for a portfolio of 15 stocks.

Note - Nifty 50 ETF gave 16% ROE (5 Y Avg)


PS - when insurance companies or big pharma may be working on insurance premium or drug pricing etc, data for normal distribution in a similar way on a representative population may become highly useful. Use and harm because of data depends on the purpose it's used for i.e. to maximize profit or to maximize access or somewhere in the middle. 


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