Saturday 31 July 2021

Trading and Medicine analogy (complexity, uncertainity, technology) - part 5




Custom, self made, Trading Decision Support System.. work in progress.. found it easy to prepare in google sheets than any paid tools, also haven't analyzed much in paid tools, but while preparing the cdss/tdss i realize that how its(evidence basis)  made and how its used (evidence appraisal and application) matter more than how feature full and advance algorithm  or high computation it have...


Common tip - Listen everyone but never follow them, as following experts is a sure shot strategy for destruction. Experts are also frequently wrong and worst of all is they have COI. So can listen but always analyse yourself and make your own decisions.


Stop loss - a pre-set point to exit on a loosing trade to prevent any further/major loss.. It's one of the most important aspect in trading for minimising risk, which ultimately helps better profit in the long run by minimising losses. There are low hanging fruits in medicine as stop loss by having communication with the patient , if not directly then with a student or patient advocate or even a patient  app where we can find the harm/adr/low effect of a drug easily and quickly. Even sharing information like patient leaflets or links to patient education website can be useful same way. A precise monitoring of therapeutic and adverse effect of drugs are other possibilities ahead.


while its cool to notice analogies and experiment with them explore about decision making, there are two big differences between trading and clinical decision making. First is the common patterns to note are similar to the common diagnosis found in real practice but the less common ones are also must to not miss in clinics while also keeping an open eye for the rare ones, whereas in trading the less common and rare patterns are found only by machines i think and that to not always explainable due to heavy use of machine learning/AI. Second major difference is in clinics we always have to look at complex inter-relationships to some significant depth for making any decisions and may be in much depth when facing challenges, but in trading we don't look much at logically explainable inter-relationships when doing it manually, but with help of machines it starts to some extent.. this makes a trader life's easy and to make it more easy to play game for being more successful, the strategy is specializing. Master one thing and do very well and as the market keep changing, keep updating your techniques. (this is like clinically applicable ebm updates)


RB - It's a breakthrough analogy 👏👏👏  Try reviewing the literature to see if anyone has had this analogy idea before.


Avi - Thanks a lot sir 🙏🙏 . I am having this thought since a few days that may be it becomes an educational strategy someday as checklists became from airline industry correlation.  

no such literature sir. its commonly said that trading is like medical decision making as a wrong decision may destroy whole capital(like can kill a human)... but nothing more than that.. but here the discussion is from medical perspective, there is zero literature in pubmed and i didn't find also in gray literature.

RB - It will become better than that 👏

Avi - very happy to be able to do it sir! all medicine concepts learn't helped me understand better while i was reading/studying heavily in 65 days. My dedicated heavy effort ended 5 days back and i am happy to be a successful beginner. There is a rule of 90/90/90 i.e. 90% traders loose 90% of money in 90 days, but luckily i recovered back from -20% to approx 0% in the first month and then to 10% profit in the 2nd month. Its not best learning in a bullish (going high) market as it is now because we don't discover our mistakes easily which are very important in learning journey, but I feel lucky that it helped me lesser losses while take time for dedicated effort to learn well. (The profit matched  my monthly expenses and that is my target & need for coming months).

human body is self healing, like a bullish market and may be that's why we don't see the medical science inefficiencies easily, and due to very high interconnectivity among concepts, it's tough to figure out meaningful correlations and understand its causations.

there are 3 kind of trading decisions -> gambling, investing, and speculation. they based on logic applied and risk applicable. medicine have minimalist, the real trader may be doing a combination of these and depending on his/her risk appetite, as in medicine there are minimalists and maximalists utilizing evidence of efficacy in varying ranges as weak to strong quality of evidence..

as i have some confidence now on profit making, now i am trying to look into optimizing the workflow , automating it and maximizing the profit https://www.elearnmarkets.com/blog/nr4-and-nr7-trading-strategy-setup/    ,  so for this when i started experimenting, i made a loss of 1% of the capital i have as risk increased when i entered into new territory, learning happened less by practice and more by analyzing the outcomes of practise so can say that is a catalyst when we move ahead on the learning curve, and the TDSS i made showed something already known and similar existing as terms which are not very well known to newbies and hobbyists (NR4 and NR7 are the terms) 

the way optimizing and maximizing profit learning is going on is by 1) finding more objective ways of doing the things i was trying to do subjectively but also avoiding overfitting of objective/quantities on subjective approach/qualities 2) finding the right tools 3) going deeper towards interelationships


RB - 1 and 3 👏👏



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