Trading and Medicine analogy (complexity, uncertainity, technology) - part 7

98% of retail investors make no profit over a duration of 1 year. 

90% traders loose 90% money in 90 days.. (Trading and investing is a lil. Different but overall just a game to Make money). 

2% who makes money, many times they are correct, evidence based, strategic, very good at managing risk, lucky, etc. (but that all are just 20% , a random) 

And rest 80% game is played by time, helping them win sooner or later.. Simple best practices help them get time more strongly in their favour. 

Good that we say EBM and whole science is 1% of knowledge, rest 99% yet to be discovered and that's where lots of good/bad (benefits and harms to patients) happen but it's mainly time game at play after applying all the little amount of deployable science we have (medical knowledge doubles every 72 days but deployable knowledge doesn't change so fast when we look both the best available evidence {1/2 goes wrong every 5 year} and available resources to help practice any among many of the best/better possible things.) 

The technology software in world for data , evidence, and analytics (Bloomberg terminal) and the best (complexity ranging from zero to 100%) techniques as quant/algo or human mind (precision) have things that are futuristic in medicine like whole environment data , or whole past data (womb to tomb) etc. Are available but as human behavior/human psychology / mass psychology / mass psychology built in into the algorithms replacing humans, affect the stock prices alot, they are not exponentially efficient to be accurate at prediciting future price, nor exponentially efficient to generate higher returns.. 

And the catch is 1) into this image below

2) into inability of all these combined together and analysed with current analytics to capture the uncertainty of human mind/life & interactions in the biosphere.

- a screenshot of best software available

Do this very low level analytics help in making time in our favour? 

- yes. Tremendously

Do simplicity win in long run

- yes. Without overcomplicating it can give decent returns and prevent big damages.

can time be an enemy too? (yes. especially when analytics is wrong. diagnosis or wrong harmful treatment may harm, and for diseases where prognosis is know to be bad as not much possible to do, then also time is enemy and in later case we may have no control)

not finding the triangle, it basically says, more advanced technique gives more reward but with more risk. so net gain is not exponentially high in general.

its very important skill to develop psychology to match with time game, else there will be again just losses/damages.

RB - 👍👏

data from the biosphere - climate, disaster, huge vessels in sea carrying cargo (metal cargo arriving at a small time frame may lead to reduce metal price in state/country).. or tesla car cargo reaching/delivering to/from some port causing possible price gain in tesla etc

all the news and their predicted impact giving buy/sell signal

technical and fundamental indicator and chart (price on chart, the most important signal)

and even news ranked in orders for helping as CDSS

correlations - (suppliers on left, the company in center and its branches below and customers on right and each having variable stake causing varying degree of impact and correlating together)

near top left (64%) -> collective intelligence, taking average of all inputs of world's best analysts.. and interesting to note none getting hundred % and rather sometime all 3 options may get equal weightage giving no decision and showing so much variability in decisions / recommendations of experts (and experts collective intelligence)

global status indicator.. combinantion of every individual trade everywhere in world in any microsecond

RB - Wow! Envision an individual health record getting updated every second globally!

Avi - could be so easy if the variety of data points were so few.. but technology may help overcome that and is already helping a lot.. we saw a glimpse of such global updating, dashboard views, and their use in prediction, planning, resource execution and various other decision making and it failed repeatedly, but not without a HUGE impact (and in some countries highly successful impact)

a cheap tool for retailers democratizing access to such cdss kind of data.. the data and evidence and analyst quality is not my point here but the access and democratization is. 

various such cheap tools to do nearly everything in the costly software to some extent if not full with some troubles may be.. commenting on accuracy won't be a good thing at my stage without having a RCT with a living meta analysis

price - The cost of a Bloomberg Terminal is $24,000 per year, and terminals are leased on a two-year basis. The price drops to $20,000 per terminal per year for 2 or more terminals. while the low cost ones are like 10-20$ per year. 

there are have social network kind of discussion facilities used globally i think, with other hedge fund managers, while for retailers there are many UDFCs (user drive finance care) networks on whatsapp telegram twitter and everywhere, world is connected.  (UDHC = user driven healthcare - https://classworkdecjan.blogspot.com/2020/01/udhc-resources.html )

market and industry inter-relationship

RB - May need a break down of the image to simplify it for a larger audience?

Avi - yes sir.