Saturday 31 July 2021

Trading and Medicine analogy (complexity, uncertainity, technology) - part 3

Hitting the ceiling - as a retail trader I am playing with strategies that are too old and not best in current market but still profitable to a good extent if done right. I get to see the data every minute I.e. minute candle but those having high resources have milliseconds level. Resources eg. Big capital, super smart quantitative strategies (quant) and access to high performance systems.. 


On Milliseconds data they don't only use it as an edge but also in quant trading they use even stock specific strategy which to be used for only one stock/scrip/company/symbol and that too frequently adjusted and even replaced after some time as a strategy may not work always and not just this but there may be even ensemble of strategies for a single stock and giving an extra edge by use of machine learning and neural networks along with all the smart statistics.. The quant traders are not only the players against retail traders but also can make a huge dent on algo traders profits and there is one way even more intensive and that is high frequency trading.. I have hit the ceiling because though I can have access to tools to learn and even to some extent also possible to do it (quant) myself as an individual trader (cloudquant software company brings money where we can bring in strategies)  but neither I have bandwidth to learn that much nor that suits to my future plans, life goals, or in short to my personality.. In all these different variations I have discussed above till today, each of them have pros and cons and capability to make profit and best suitability in different scenario and people are not only recommend to focus on specializing by practice for maximize profits and in best suitable way for the person but also to find and edge which helps to perform even better and adapt according to the market scenario.. It's easy to know any of these to be dangerous enough (burning all capital while trying to profit) but it's very difficult to master any of those as an art , as same as the art of medicine is. Be it 10000  hours of practice or regular incremental improvement or goal to be a performer like Beethoven or mozart, it's all about the art..


RB - Let's utilize this learning analogy to further the field of medicine 👏


Avi - About performance - not the high performing traders in the high resource settings make the most impact (own earning), a low performing retail trader doing consistent work for long time may be more or equally impactful.. Same applies to the community health workers (doctors , quacks, anyone) , given the condition that they do right thing. they must be guided towards doing the right things while enabling them with good useful technology.


RB - Yes and the earnings are in terms of patient outcomes


Avi - when the data is there having no meaning and full of uncertainity and everyone having some general and some person view on market (understanding).. Utilizing techniques to help make better decision makings are important. Historical data (womb to tomb), Backtesting (past medicine effect), sample testing (challenge test / n= 1 trial), etc. Are important , and also all other data in detail as social, environmental, even political etc. Become important (lockdown -> lonliness and depression).. And combining all to analyze together is a possibility which is being made a reality in stocks with help of advance statitsivs and ai. 


(Not just the diagnostic data but also therapeutic data - allopathy ayurveda ayush placebopathy naturopathy hypnosis talking listening therapy faith etc..)



And they are also coming to Medicine too.. Covid was great example as google had gps data from phone and it was showing lots of useful data on a separate dashboard.. More coming ahead soon hopefully

Conclusion - "Let students be part of decision making".

RB - Integration is a piece of swiss cheese if not cake 👏






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